Nobody Knows Anything

In his 1982 memoir, the late Oscar-winning screenwriter William Goldman coined the phrase “nobody knows anything.” He was speaking to the unpredictability of Hollywood, how sure-fire hits turn out to be duds while terrible ideas become blockbusters. It’s an appropriate summary of the current state of professional golf.

On November 30th, I recorded an episode of the “Media Credentials” podcast with the esteemed golf writer Ron Sirak. When asked which hot topic in golf is most intriguing to him, Ron naturally went to the ongoing negotiations between the Tour and the Saudi Arabian Public Investment Fund, or PIF. After that, we continued for nearly an hour on various topics, and it was delightful. In the days that followed, I edited the episode and decided to hold off on releasing it, as I had just published the episode with poker commentator Joe Stapleton. I figured I would keep Ron in the can for about a week.

Seven days later, just as I was about to hit “Publish,” LIV Golf announced the signing of Jon Rahm. 

I could have asked Ron for a do-over — he’s one of the most accommodating journalists I know — but I decided to leave him alone. Besides, in the time it would take me to record and edit a new episode, there’s a better than average chance that another bombshell will drop.

Here’s what we do know: LIV has released a schedule for 2024. Their promotions event in Abu Dhabi went off as planned. I can tell you for a fact that several of the contractors who work on LIV’s television broadcasts have been renewed for 2024. LIV just started a new podcast, “LIV Fairway To Heaven,” hosted by announcers Jerry Foltz and Su-Ann Heng (first guest: Jon Rahm). None of these moves indicate that LIV is waiting around for a deal to get done with the PGA Tour. They’re planning to play.

We also know that the PGA Tour Policy Board has voted to negotiate with an outside investment group while simultaneously maintaining talks with the PIF. The investment group, known as Strategic Sports Group, is a consortium of industry heavy hitters that includes Arthur Blank, Fenway Sports Group, Wyc Grousbeck, John Henry, and Tom Werner, among others. The collective net worth of the 12 individuals and entities that make up SSG is in the high billions, but likely nothing close to the reported $776 billion in assets claimed by the PIF.

As written in this space before, the Tour’s Policy Board has been reshaped this year. Previously, the voting membership included six Tour players and six independent directors; in response to the Tour’s secretive dealings with the PIF, the players lobbied for, and were granted, one more seat — currently occupied by Tiger Woods. With a voting majority, the players now hold the cards, with Tiger as the swing vote. As if Woods wasn’t already the most powerful figure in golf.

What’s curious about the Policy Board’s announcement is the notion that the Tour will negotiate with two separate entities concurrently. My Golf Channel colleague Brandel Chamblee, one of LIV’s most ferocious critics, suggests that the Tour cannot afford to allow LIV to operate as currently structured, and therefore must strike a deal with the PIF that mitigates LIV’s reach. More players will be poached, the argument goes, and the financial arms race will remain unsustainable. Several Tour sponsors, including Honda and Wells Fargo, have already balked at being asked to pony up more cash. Having SSG on board would theoretically bolster the Tour’s resources, but that doesn’t stop LIV from spending even more. What Brandel, and others, are suggesting: you can’t beat them, so join them.

The PGA Tour and the PIF created an arbitrary deadline of December 31st to finalize some kind of deal. Even if the deadline is met (unlikely), the odds of us seeing any kind of joint project in action in 2024 are virtually nil. As I said, LIV has released a schedule. The PGA Tour has released a schedule. Even though the two sides agreed to drop all pending litigation via the Framework Agreement, the Justice Department is still sniffing around, and any new agreement will bring new scrutiny — a process that could easily take up all of 2024, if not longer. 

Consider TGL, the virtual golf league fronted by Rory McIlroy and Tiger. While the project was announced in August of 2022, the planning started two years earlier, with a goal of opening in January 2024. When TGL’s indoor golf facility in South Florida was damaged in November, the league added another full year to the schedule, now aiming for 2025. That’s a five-year ramp for a virtual golf league that has the blessing and cooperation of golf’s power players, plus a TV deal with ESPN — and many of the TGL participants are calling it a “relief” to have the extra time. But we expect a brand new green-grass golf entity partially backed by the Saudis to go live next spring? With a green light from the DOJ and a media rights deal? Breathtakingly optimistic. At this point, 2025 would be a win.

From its conception, LIV billed itself as a disruptor, even as Greg Norman was using words like “additive” to sell the idea to a skeptical golf ecosystem. Intentional or not, LIV exposed the PGA Tour’s vulnerability to a well-funded competitor. When examining similar scenarios in the past, results are mixed.

In 1970, the NFL solved its AFL problem by merging. Six years later, the NBA did the same with the ABA. In 1979, the National Hockey League absorbed four franchises from the crumbling World Hockey Association. Nobody can argue that those three leagues are the worse for it.

However, it can go horribly wrong. In 2008, after a lengthy schism, the upstart Indy Racing League finally reconciled with original open-wheel governing body CART, but it was too late. CART teams had boycotted the IRL’s Indy 500 for years, dropping interest in both series, and as viewership plummeted, NASCAR filled the motorsports void. The damage was permanent. Today, the IndyCar series registers in viewer surveys as less than half as popular as NASCAR. In should be noted that, in those same surveys, golf trails IndyCar in terms of interest.

That last bit is a cautionary tale for the PGA Tour. Those of us who have lived in the golf bubble are susceptible to believing that general sports fans understand, know, or care about our current events. They don’t. They’re watching the NFL. We are a small market team trying to hold our audience and keep the franchise afloat.

So here we are. The last round of rumors had Tony Finau and Tyrrell Hatton going to LIV. Also rumblings about Patrick Cantlay and Xander Schauffele. By the time you read this, it’s already outdated.

Just remember: nobody knows anything.